Locker Room Access - Virginia

Less than three weeks from the start of a new season, I lay out my five bold predictions for the 2024-25 Virginia men’s basketball team.    

Impact Freshman

Virginia freshman guard Ishan Sharma will average over 7 points per game this season.  That may not seem like such a bold prediction until you realize it’s only been done by one UVA true-freshman in the past 11 years, Kyle Guy (7.5 PPG).  Just four first-year Wahoos surpassed a seven-point average under Bennett.  Joe Harris (10.4 PPG), KT Harrell (8.0 PPG), and Justin Anderson (7.6 PPG) round out the list.  Isaac McKneely (6.7 PPG) almost pulled it off a couple years ago. 

Through the first two periods of the #UVA Blue-White scrimmage, freshman guard Ishan Sharma has been really impressive. Hit a tough, turnaround in the lane, beat the shot clock for an off-the-dribble three, drew a foul and hit both FTs and had a steal.

— Mike Barber (@StillMikeBarber) October 5, 2024

Sharma was not the most heralded recruit, ranked 236th in his class.  UVA took a flier on him around this time last fall after losing out in the Kon Knueppel sweepstakes.  People around the team believe they got a steal.  The Canadian sharpshooter has impressed since arriving on Grounds.  We’ll see what happens when the real games begin, but there’s a lot of excitement about him.  I’m betting on the freshman to emerge as a key contributor.  If he even comes close to 7 PPG, he’ll be in elite company.  

All-ACC

Junior guard Isaac McKneely will be an All-ACC selection, either first or second team.  I’m tempted to just say first-team, but I’ll play it safe.  The pride of Poca averaged 12.3 points last season, shooting a ridiculous 45% from three-point range.  He’ll be asked to carry a heavier load this year, likely as the main offensive weapon.  If UVA finishes among the top five in the league as predicted, and I think they will, odds are McKneely will be an easy All-ACC pick.

In Bennett’s 15 seasons at UVA, there have only been three returning juniors who averaged over 11 points the previous season.  Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, and Kyle Guy.  All of them were first-teamers as juniors. 

Virginia’s Isaac McKneely with some layup practice early in the season

(Via @JonEasystep 🎥)

pic.twitter.com/L3a4CkDHwa

— Hoop Herald (@TheHoopHerald) September 29, 2024

There won’t be just one Hoo earning All-ACC honors. I expect junior forward Elijah Saunders to find his way somewhere on the list too.  The San Diego State transfer looks primed to make a big leap.  He’s drawn rave reviews all offseason.  When he committed, I called it a sneaky good pickup.  That’s probably going to be an understatement.  

Leading Indicator

If Jalen Warley is in the lead guard role for more than 25 minutes per game, UVA will easily exceed preseason expectations.  Tony Bennett is calling it a point guard by committee situation right now.  Senior Jalen Warley seems to be heading it up with young guys Dai Dai Ames and Christian Bliss competing for playing time.  Bennett mentioned junior Andrew Rohde in the mix too.  

Two or probably three of those guys are bound to be in the rotation, obviously playing together at times.  And Warley is sure to have a big role.  He’s their best perimeter defender and brings experience to a young team.  But it won’t always be as the lead guard.  That’s where things get messy.  To be at their best offensively, this year’s team needs to have two from their stable of shooters (McKneely, Murray, Power, Sharma) on the floor at the SG and SF spots for the majority of the game. 

I’m not necessarily predicting that Warley will have that type of role or even suggesting that he should.  He’ll need to play well enough to earn it.  And if that happens, UVA will be really good.  

Record Rate

This year’s Wahoos will make more three-pointers than any Virginia team since the 2019 national champs.  I’ll take it a step further, they’ll make more than any Bennett team excluding the championship squad.  So over 247 three-pointers, the total from the 2017-18 season.  They made an average of 7.3 triples per game that year. 

In order to be successful this season, UVA will need that type of production from behind the arc.  There will regularly be three or sometimes four players on the court whose best skill is the three-point shot.  If they don’t blow past that 247 number, it could be a rough year.  Two Bennett teams surpassed eight makes per game, the champs and the 2020-21 Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy team during the covid-shortened season.  To compete at the top of the ACC, this year’s squad will probably need to be at least within shouting distance of that neighborhood.  

Get One in March

Virginia will win an NCAA Tournament game this March.  It’s been a cloud hanging over the program unfortunately.  Despite continued regular season success, UVA hasn’t won a March Madness game since taking home the national title in 2019.  I think they’ll get that monkey off their back this year.  

With so many new faces, there’s a lot of uncertainty heading into the new season.  It’s a young team.  Tony Bennett openly talks about having a two-year window, essentially hinting that he has higher hopes for next season.  They have a long way to go before thinking about postseason play.  But there’s a lot of upside to this team.  It’ll be exciting to see them grow together and improve as the season goes along.  There’s obvious potential for them to be playing their best at the right time.

(Featured Image Credit: Josie Drumheller/UVA Athletics) 

By Josh Burton

The University of Virginia Football team dropped a tough one to Louisville this week, with Louisville scoring the go ahead touchdown with just under two minutes left in the game to pick up a 24-20 win over the Hoos in Charlottesville. It was another frustrating effort for the UVA team that once again felt like it could’ve easily won the game; a feeling that’s been hanging around the program for the last couple years. Offensive and special teams issues were the main plagues this wee. Let's take a look at what went wrong.

Offense

A general lack of scoring efficiency was once again the main issue for the Hoos.  They were only able to convert one of four drives to the redzone for a touchdown, with two other trips ending in field goals and one ending in a turnover on downs late in the second quarter. I wasn’t a huge fan of the decision to go for it in that spot, which led to the turnover on downs, but the general inability to finish drives by getting into the endzone is a serious concern for this team both now and moving forward. On the year, Virginia is currently last in the ACC and in the bottom ten nationally on converting redzone trips into touchdowns.

UVA has only scored 10 TDs in 27 red zone trips.

That 39% ranks last in the ACC and 129th in the country out of 134 teams.

Dead last among the 96 teams with at least 20 trips.

— Danny Neckel (@DNeckel19) October 13, 2024

I believe there are a few different factors contributing to the problem here. One I believe is being addressed, which is the previous lack of a true rushing attack. Teams that can run the ball have more success scoring once they get close to the endzone, and for the last few weeks it has felt like that has been more of an emphasis on establishing the run. Obviously it’s still a work in progress but I think it will pay dividends going forward. 

The other issue to me has been play calling/situational decision making. One example was the attempted “pop pass” to get first-year wide receiver Kam Courtney out on the edge from the Louisville six-yard line. While I appreciate the effort to get the defense spread out and get the electric Courtney in space, that close to the end zone isn’t an ideal spot for it. Credit to Louisville's defense for holding contain on the edge as they managed to drop Courtney for a seven-yard loss, pushing the Hoos back to the 13 for second and goal. Going backwards behind the sticks like this then makes it even tougher to call potentially successful plays to finish the drive. Once they get in this close to scoring, the Hoos need to limit negative plays as much as possible, especially given that it was only first down.

Defense

Defensively, the Hoos also didn’t play their best game. An inability to get Louisville ball carriers on the ground was in my opinion the biggest issue on the field and concern going forward. Missed tackles all over the field allowed Louisville to continuously turn could’ve been moderate gains into big chunk plays. While I don’t think this game was lost on the defensive side of the field, I certainly do believe they could’ve played much better. 

Special Teams

As mentioned in the header, special teams play, specifically punts, were the other key factor to decide the games results. The usually very consistent Daniel Sparks had a poor day with issues on two punts. One punt hit off another UVA player and ended up being an extremely short attempt, while the other went off the side of his foot and ended up actually being a negative play and setting up Louisville with a one-play drive to score from the UVA 14.

While Sparks definitely needs to be more sound and clean with his attempts, I thought a different approach to punting this week also could’ve been a main reason for the issues. They tried taking a “rugby style” approach with directional punting as opposed to the conventional approach. I wasn’t a an of that approach, given that Sparks is a generally good punter who can really get the ball far downfield. Hopefully they’ll revert back to the conventional method after the multiple issues this week.

Although it was a very frustrating game, the UVA Football team is still 4-2 over (2-1 in ACC) and has plenty of opportunities to pick up big wins on the schedule ahead. While there’s no doubt that having won this one would’ve made the bowl math a lot easier, the team still has the chance to earn the right to their first bowl game since the 2019 Orange Bowl. Looking ahead, how do you think the team will finish? Join our conversation on Locker Room Access!

(Featured Image Credit: Josie Drumheller/UVA Athletics) 

Projecting UVA's starting lineup, recruiting odds, Sanchez vs Williford, secret scrimmage opponents, and other fan questions in the Locker Room Access mailbag.  

What do you predict will happen with the last scholarship spot? Like the chances they go with player x, player y, transfer, etc? 

@DNeckel19

 

UVA is trying to fill one more spot in their 2025 recruiting class to go along with St. Anne’s-Belfield (VA) point guard Chance Mallory. With 12 projected players for next season and a young team, it’s not an easy assignment.  They’re having a tough go, but still a couple lines in the water.  

They’ve been after two guys lately, Jeffersonville (IN) forward Tre Singleton and Largo (MD) forward Cam Ward.  Singleton is already off the board.  He committed to Northwestern on Wednesday, after visiting UVA last weekend.  Ward put Virginia in his final four this week, with plans to decide at the end of the month.  We’re trying to play catch-up to Michigan State and maybe Kansas State in that race.  

Then there’s five-star Highland School (VA) forward Nate Ament.  He intends to stretch his recruitment until next spring, sprinkling visits in along the way.  It’s a longshot at this point (3%)  But if the spot stays open, they’ll presumably play it out.  

So Cam Ward is where the action is right now, let’s go 10% chance. If that doesn’t work out, the coaches could consider other available recruits ahead of November’s signing period (5%). I expect they’d sit tight though, then see where things stand after the season.   

My prediction is they will add a 2025 forward recruit at the late signing period next spring, a player to be named.  Always lots of movement at that time.  All depends on what happens with outgoing transfers and who’s available.  It’ll be a whole different situation then.  

Has there been a season in the Tony Bennett era when the starting line-up for opening day was more up in the air? 

@Lhasan2

 

I don’t get the feeling it’s up in the air that much.  My assumptions could prove wrong though, we’ll see.   

It would surprise me if returners Isaac McKneely and Blake Buchanan along with transfer newcomers Jalen Warley and Elijah Saunders aren’t all in the opening night starting lineup.  The last spot could be up for grabs.   

Duke transfer TJ Power started the Blue-White game in a lineup with the four players above.  Then in the final period, the same lineup started, only with senior Taine Murray in place of Power.  I’d expect one of those two to start at the 3-spot.  That lines up with what we’ve heard and told LRA subscribers.  There’s a long way to go though, plenty of time for others to change the equation.   

Why isn’t Kyle Guy's number/jersey retired? 

@59chevi

 

That might be coming in the near future.  If I’m not mistaken, it’s tradition to only award those honors to players who have graduated.  With Kyle back now on the coaching staff, he’s in the process of finishing his degree.  Personally, I think it’s a no-brainer to put #5 in the rafters.   

What are the 13 player archetypes for the “ideal” [realistic] Tony Bennett roster construction? Am I crazy to think 2024-25 has at least 10 of those 13 boxes checked? 

@Wahooze

 

Warning, we’re going down a rabbit hole.  I don’t know about 13 archetypes.  But I do find that in high school recruiting, Bennett seems to have a formula he sticks to.  Seven roles, as I think of it, he tries to fill every 2-3 year window and continuously repeats.   

The best way to explain it is to look at UVA’s 2013-14 seven-man rotation, probably the most balanced team Bennett has had.  Four guards, three forwards.  A floor general (Perrantes), a versatile combo (Brogdon), a shooter (Harris), and an athlete (Anderson). Up front, there’s a skilled forward (Gill), an athletic forward (Mitchell), and a true big man (Tobey).  

It’s a bit more complex than that, not as rigid as it might sound.  Most players can slot in different categories, providing flexibility in who they recruit next.  But basically, the idea is to get seven guys with complementary traits.  If most of them make it to become upperclassmen, you’ll be pretty good.  Fill in the gaps with transfers.   

For example, UVA currently has five freshmen after taking redshirts into account and one 2025 recruit.  Chance Mallory (floor general), Christian Bliss (versatile combo), Ishan Sharma (shooter), Elijah Gertrude (athletic guard), Jacob Cofie (skilled forward), and Anthony Robinson (big man).  All that’s missing is an athletic forward, the type of player they’re still trying to add to the 2025 class. 

As for this year’s team, it depends who actually ends up in the rotation.  The pieces are definitely there on the roster, just some are young and may not be a factor yet.     

Based on the new talent and new offensive approach, what is the main factor to watch for that will be a leading indicator of how successful this Virginia team can be? 

@toJamesConnor

 

UVA needs guys to create shots for themselves more often.  This year’s team has plenty of shooting.  And along with the new offense they’re running, there should be better spacing which leads to more opportunity to make individual plays.  If they can get some individual playmaking to go along with that shooting, it becomes a very dangerous offensive team.   

If you want an objective stat, maybe it’s assist rate.  The percentage of made field goals that are assisted.  UVA has been over 60% the past three seasons, the highest rates of the Bennett era.  Not necessarily a bad thing.  UConn won the national title with a higher assist rate.  But in UVA’s case, too high of a rate seems to be indicative of underlying issues.  They became overly reliant on the system and the point guards to create for everyone.  Bennett’s best teams were in the 55% neighborhood.   

How quick do you see this team “clicking” or playing its best? With such new faces but also some guys that have been in college for a little. 

@Jwhelann

 

There are a lot of variables with this year’s team.  The first concern is on the defensive end.  As we’ve seen in the past, it usually takes some time for it to gel when there are several new faces in the lineup.  Throw in a new offensive system too, there’s certain to be coaching adjustments needed along the way.  Not to mention, the rotation will be far from settled early in the season.   

The goal is always to have your identity figured out, call it clicking, by New Year’s when they dive fully into ACC play.  Most teams are in the same situation these days, making the early season more chaotic.  What’s exciting about this UVA team is the potential for young players to emerge as the season goes along, helping them hit that extra gear they need to be their best when it matters most.   

How strong will our inside presence be this season? 

@DevonsShoe

 

A lot will depend on how much improvement there’s been from sophomore center Blake Buchanan.  UVA doesn’t need him to post big stats.  If he can average 7 or 8 points and 6 boards, that would be great.  It’s not so much about the numbers.  They need him to be steady.  Finish plays reliably around the basket,  create second chances on the offensive glass, and make his presence known on defense without getting into foul trouble.  

I expect Blake to have a good year.  He got thrown into the fire last season and will be better for that experience.  There’s an opportunity for one of the freshmen, Anthony Robinson or Jacob Cofie, to earn a significant role as Blake’s backup.   Overall, it is maybe the top positional concern on the team because of the youth.  Very talented trio though.  It will be exciting to see how they come along this season.   

Who would you pick tu take TB spot when he retires. Sanchez or J Willy AND WHY? @Tugard1 

First, the disclaimer.  I am in no way suggesting that Tony Bennett will retire in the near future.  Just answering a hypothetical question.  

Give me Jason Williford.  Nothing against Sanchez.  He proved that he can be a successful head coach at Charlotte, where he inherited a tough situation.   My concern is that he would basically be Bennett-lite, and maybe even feel that’s what he’s expected to be at UVA.  Those hiring decisions following a legend rarely go well.  What makes Bennett special isn’t necessarily handed down to an assistant.  

Williford would have a different approach, taking things he’s learned under Bennett as well as other coaching influences such as Jeff Jones.  It would be a fresh regime, not an impossible attempt to continue the status quo.  He’d very much run things his own way.   

And he’s a Wahoo.  That means something.  I don’t believe what Tony Bennett has done can be replicated, at least not the way he’s done it.  For UVA to be successful under the next head coach, they’ll need to get back to truly being Virginia’s team.  The best way to do that is by hiring a Virginia guy.    

There would be outside candidates, they shouldn’t limit the search to assistant coaches, but I’d hope Williford would be seriously considered.   

Who does UVA play in the secret scrimmages? 

@elton_pettiford

 

Each year, there are two closed-door scrimmages against other teams in the weeks leading up to the season opener.  They’re called secret scrimmages.  The results never seem to stay secret though.  

UVA is scheduled to host VCU at JPJ next weekend, then the Hoos travel to Georgetown the following weekend.  Both those teams have been semi-regular secret scrimmage opponents over the years.

(Featured Image Credit: UVA Athletics)