Five Things to Watch for in Virginia's Early Season

Virginia basketball tips off a new season Monday night, the start of a new era under first-year head coach Ryan Odom.  Here are five things I’ll be paying close attention to as the early part of the season unfolds. 

Margins Matter

Virginia’s early November schedule gives them an opportunity to find their footing.  The Wahoos play their first four games at home against mid-major opponents.  Starting with Monday’s opener vs Rider, followed by meetings with NC Central, Hampton, and Marshall before heading over to West Virginia for the Greenbrier Tip-Off the weekend before Thanksgiving. 

With an older roster and an aggressive style of play, this is a UVA team that should be able to overwhelm lesser opponents.  It’s still basketball, game-to-game shooting variance can make things interesting on any given night.  But the totality of these early November games, the scoring margins, will probably give us a good read on where they stand and what to expect for the non-conference tests coming later this month and into December. 

Let’s also not forget that scoring margin does kinda matter now.  It’s a big part of the NCAA’s NET ranking formula.  

Exchange Rates

Perhaps the most key factor for Virginia this season will be how well their high-priced European imports adjust to the college game and their roles on this team.  Belgian forward Thijs de Ridder and German center Johann Grunloh are expected to be in the starting lineup.  For Odom’s Wahoos to reach their potential, those two need to be standouts. 

The first thing that’s required for that to happen is for them to avoid foul trouble so they can stay on the court.  Both had fairly high foul rates in Europe.  And the style of play in college is more conducive to drawing fouls.  On top of that, the NCAA is emphasizing that officials clean up some of the physical play.  So, expect games to be called tightly in the early going.

De Ridder and Grunloh will also need to adjust to being featured offensively, as opposed to being young role players on their European pro teams.  UVA wants them to be assertive, look to make plays on their own at times.  More than has been asked of them in the past.  Ideally, their usage rates should be above average.  

Early Opportunities

The best opportunity for players to make an impression and move up in the rotation comes in the early season.  Coaches usually like to have defined roles by conference play.  Until then, things can easily change. Odom does like to use a deeper rotation, and has said he plans to go 10-deep with this team.  But plans can change.  Players will need to prove their worth in November and December. 

That’s especially relevant for the young guys on this Virginia team.  Freshman guard Chance Mallory certainly figures to have a safe spot in the rotation, but there will be ample opportunity for him to earn a larger role if he shines these next few weeks.  Odom has indicated that sophomore guard Elijah Gertrude will have his minutes limited in the early season, as he works his way back from knee surgery.  He seemed to be the 10th man during the scrimmages.  And freshman wing Martin Carrere could enter the conversation if he can provide an early season spark off the bench. 

Fast or Faster

The style of play under Odom will be quite different than Virginia fans had grown accustomed to with Tony Bennett.  More of the analytic-driven approach that’s become prevalent in modern basketball.  Odom’s teams shoot lots and lots of three-pointers.  He likes to pressure full-court and create turnovers.  And the pace of play will be much faster.  

The question is–will Virginia actually play at a fast pace comparable to the rest of college basketball.  Despite the talk about Odom wanting to play fast, his past teams haven’t done so in a while.  At least not statistically.  Only once has his team ranked in the top 100 of Division-1 in adjusted tempo, and that was his first season at UMBC.  His VCU squads ranked in the bottom half, outside the top 200, both years there. 

Silent Transfers

Two of Virginia’s key transfer additions had very quiet performances in their two preseason exhibition games.  Guard Sam Lewis started both games, and likely will again on Monday.  His spot could be on shaky ground though.  He only logged 11 minutes in the win over Villanova.  And former UC-Irvine forward Devin Tillis, coming off the bench, didn’t do much either. 

Now that the games count, it’ll be interesting to see how well those two perform.  Moving up from the mid-major ranks, there’s sometimes an adjustment period even for older players. They’re important pieces that Odom is counting on to provide solid production this season. 

Hoops is back! The best spot on the web to hang out is the Locker Room Access forum. Come join the discussion.  We’ll have Virginia Basketball covered every step of the way all season long.

(Featured Image Credit: Jamie Holt/UVA Athletics)