Mailbag: Recruiting Odds, Projected Starters. Secret Scrimmages

Projecting UVA's starting lineup, recruiting odds, Sanchez vs Williford, secret scrimmage opponents, and other fan questions in the Locker Room Access mailbag.  

What do you predict will happen with the last scholarship spot? Like the chances they go with player x, player y, transfer, etc? 

@DNeckel19

 

UVA is trying to fill one more spot in their 2025 recruiting class to go along with St. Anne’s-Belfield (VA) point guard Chance Mallory. With 12 projected players for next season and a young team, it’s not an easy assignment.  They’re having a tough go, but still a couple lines in the water.  

They’ve been after two guys lately, Jeffersonville (IN) forward Tre Singleton and Largo (MD) forward Cam Ward.  Singleton is already off the board.  He committed to Northwestern on Wednesday, after visiting UVA last weekend.  Ward put Virginia in his final four this week, with plans to decide at the end of the month.  We’re trying to play catch-up to Michigan State and maybe Kansas State in that race.  

Then there’s five-star Highland School (VA) forward Nate Ament.  He intends to stretch his recruitment until next spring, sprinkling visits in along the way.  It’s a longshot at this point (3%)  But if the spot stays open, they’ll presumably play it out.  

So Cam Ward is where the action is right now, let’s go 10% chance. If that doesn’t work out, the coaches could consider other available recruits ahead of November’s signing period (5%). I expect they’d sit tight though, then see where things stand after the season.   

My prediction is they will add a 2025 forward recruit at the late signing period next spring, a player to be named.  Always lots of movement at that time.  All depends on what happens with outgoing transfers and who’s available.  It’ll be a whole different situation then.  

Has there been a season in the Tony Bennett era when the starting line-up for opening day was more up in the air? 

@Lhasan2

 

I don’t get the feeling it’s up in the air that much.  My assumptions could prove wrong though, we’ll see.   

It would surprise me if returners Isaac McKneely and Blake Buchanan along with transfer newcomers Jalen Warley and Elijah Saunders aren’t all in the opening night starting lineup.  The last spot could be up for grabs.   

Duke transfer TJ Power started the Blue-White game in a lineup with the four players above.  Then in the final period, the same lineup started, only with senior Taine Murray in place of Power.  I’d expect one of those two to start at the 3-spot.  That lines up with what we’ve heard and told LRA subscribers.  There’s a long way to go though, plenty of time for others to change the equation.   

Why isn’t Kyle Guy's number/jersey retired? 

@59chevi

 

That might be coming in the near future.  If I’m not mistaken, it’s tradition to only award those honors to players who have graduated.  With Kyle back now on the coaching staff, he’s in the process of finishing his degree.  Personally, I think it’s a no-brainer to put #5 in the rafters.   

What are the 13 player archetypes for the “ideal” [realistic] Tony Bennett roster construction? Am I crazy to think 2024-25 has at least 10 of those 13 boxes checked? 

@Wahooze

 

Warning, we’re going down a rabbit hole.  I don’t know about 13 archetypes.  But I do find that in high school recruiting, Bennett seems to have a formula he sticks to.  Seven roles, as I think of it, he tries to fill every 2-3 year window and continuously repeats.   

The best way to explain it is to look at UVA’s 2013-14 seven-man rotation, probably the most balanced team Bennett has had.  Four guards, three forwards.  A floor general (Perrantes), a versatile combo (Brogdon), a shooter (Harris), and an athlete (Anderson). Up front, there’s a skilled forward (Gill), an athletic forward (Mitchell), and a true big man (Tobey).  

It’s a bit more complex than that, not as rigid as it might sound.  Most players can slot in different categories, providing flexibility in who they recruit next.  But basically, the idea is to get seven guys with complementary traits.  If most of them make it to become upperclassmen, you’ll be pretty good.  Fill in the gaps with transfers.   

For example, UVA currently has five freshmen after taking redshirts into account and one 2025 recruit.  Chance Mallory (floor general), Christian Bliss (versatile combo), Ishan Sharma (shooter), Elijah Gertrude (athletic guard), Jacob Cofie (skilled forward), and Anthony Robinson (big man).  All that’s missing is an athletic forward, the type of player they’re still trying to add to the 2025 class. 

As for this year’s team, it depends who actually ends up in the rotation.  The pieces are definitely there on the roster, just some are young and may not be a factor yet.     

Based on the new talent and new offensive approach, what is the main factor to watch for that will be a leading indicator of how successful this Virginia team can be? 

@toJamesConnor

 

UVA needs guys to create shots for themselves more often.  This year’s team has plenty of shooting.  And along with the new offense they’re running, there should be better spacing which leads to more opportunity to make individual plays.  If they can get some individual playmaking to go along with that shooting, it becomes a very dangerous offensive team.   

If you want an objective stat, maybe it’s assist rate.  The percentage of made field goals that are assisted.  UVA has been over 60% the past three seasons, the highest rates of the Bennett era.  Not necessarily a bad thing.  UConn won the national title with a higher assist rate.  But in UVA’s case, too high of a rate seems to be indicative of underlying issues.  They became overly reliant on the system and the point guards to create for everyone.  Bennett’s best teams were in the 55% neighborhood.   

How quick do you see this team “clicking” or playing its best? With such new faces but also some guys that have been in college for a little. 

@Jwhelann

 

There are a lot of variables with this year’s team.  The first concern is on the defensive end.  As we’ve seen in the past, it usually takes some time for it to gel when there are several new faces in the lineup.  Throw in a new offensive system too, there’s certain to be coaching adjustments needed along the way.  Not to mention, the rotation will be far from settled early in the season.   

The goal is always to have your identity figured out, call it clicking, by New Year’s when they dive fully into ACC play.  Most teams are in the same situation these days, making the early season more chaotic.  What’s exciting about this UVA team is the potential for young players to emerge as the season goes along, helping them hit that extra gear they need to be their best when it matters most.   

How strong will our inside presence be this season? 

@DevonsShoe

 

A lot will depend on how much improvement there’s been from sophomore center Blake Buchanan.  UVA doesn’t need him to post big stats.  If he can average 7 or 8 points and 6 boards, that would be great.  It’s not so much about the numbers.  They need him to be steady.  Finish plays reliably around the basket,  create second chances on the offensive glass, and make his presence known on defense without getting into foul trouble.  

I expect Blake to have a good year.  He got thrown into the fire last season and will be better for that experience.  There’s an opportunity for one of the freshmen, Anthony Robinson or Jacob Cofie, to earn a significant role as Blake’s backup.   Overall, it is maybe the top positional concern on the team because of the youth.  Very talented trio though.  It will be exciting to see how they come along this season.   

Who would you pick tu take TB spot when he retires. Sanchez or J Willy AND WHY? @Tugard1 

First, the disclaimer.  I am in no way suggesting that Tony Bennett will retire in the near future.  Just answering a hypothetical question.  

Give me Jason Williford.  Nothing against Sanchez.  He proved that he can be a successful head coach at Charlotte, where he inherited a tough situation.   My concern is that he would basically be Bennett-lite, and maybe even feel that’s what he’s expected to be at UVA.  Those hiring decisions following a legend rarely go well.  What makes Bennett special isn’t necessarily handed down to an assistant.  

Williford would have a different approach, taking things he’s learned under Bennett as well as other coaching influences such as Jeff Jones.  It would be a fresh regime, not an impossible attempt to continue the status quo.  He’d very much run things his own way.   

And he’s a Wahoo.  That means something.  I don’t believe what Tony Bennett has done can be replicated, at least not the way he’s done it.  For UVA to be successful under the next head coach, they’ll need to get back to truly being Virginia’s team.  The best way to do that is by hiring a Virginia guy.    

There would be outside candidates, they shouldn’t limit the search to assistant coaches, but I’d hope Williford would be seriously considered.   

Who does UVA play in the secret scrimmages? 

@elton_pettiford

 

Each year, there are two closed-door scrimmages against other teams in the weeks leading up to the season opener.  They’re called secret scrimmages.  The results never seem to stay secret though.  

UVA is scheduled to host VCU at JPJ next weekend, then the Hoos travel to Georgetown the following weekend.  Both those teams have been semi-regular secret scrimmage opponents over the years.

(Featured Image Credit: UVA Athletics)