UVA Clings to a 10 Seed In Latest Bubble Report

By Raleigh_Hoo

With just three regular season games remaining, the Virginia Cavaliers are fighting for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. 

About the Author 

As some of you know, I have been doing bracketology for several years.  I have been posting to the bracketmatrix for 4 years now. My entry is called RWX.  I finished tied for 4th in the bracketmatrix last year, my personal best.

What Is Important to The Selection Process 

So, what does the committee value?  The NET is not the end all be all, but those who say it doesn’t matter are not correct. It has only been around for 3 tournament selection processes, but no team has made the field since the NET came into being outside the top 77 on Selection Sunday. Unless you have an incredibly unique resume, you're in trouble if outside the top 75. Consequently, the lowest NET for an at-large to not make it was North Texas at 38 last year. Thus, if you are in the top 35-40 you are in pretty good shape as well again unless your resume is particularly lacking.

We all know the quads are important, but one thing that I think is overlooked is Q1 winning percentage and also Q1/Q2/Q3 winning percentage. Teams that are below 0.500 in the Q1/Q2/Q3 winning percentage often don’t get in. It happens, Providence last year was 10-11 and got in, but not often. You also have to have at least 1 Q1 win history says. 

Efficiency metrics matter as they are baked into the NET pie, but they also matter on their own. The KPI/SOR combo (performance metrics) are more important than BPI/KenPom (predictive metrics). The reason is that the committee, when it comes to placing teams in the field, care more about what you have done (performance) vs what you could do (predictive). The predictive metrics matter more in seeding than getting into the field unless it is a very close battle between a couple teams and then it could be a tie breaker.

At the end of the day though, this is a subjective art. We do have data/numbers to objectify it to a degree, but it is still humans interpreting data their own way with their own built-in biases. I just try to guess what the committee values based on the past. But different people make up the committee year to year and they value different things.

One thing that seems to change every year is the importance of conference tournament performance. It seems to have less importance most years than you think. I think the committee likes to choose their field based on the regular season and then mostly leave it alone. If you are one of the last teams in or one of the first teams out then it does matter some, but outside of that probably not much. See Texas A&M two years ago. They absolutely deserved to be in based on what they did in the SEC tournament that year and what it added to their resume, but they weren’t selected because they weren’t one of the first few teams out headed into the conference tournaments. So, you have to err on the side of caution in making big changes to the field based on conference tournament performance. But I do think a bad loss in the ACC tournament two years ago did knock Wake Forest out. So it does matter to a degree.

UVA Sits Near The Edge

One thing UVA and other bubble teams will be pulling for is for Dayton to win the A-10 tournament and Florida Atlantic to win the AAC tournament. Right now, Richmond and South Florida are taking up two spots in the field since they are in 1st in their conferences. But both would likely not get an at-large bid. So those could be two spots that open up.

Right now, I have UVA as a 10 seed, 6 teams deep in the field. With 3 games left, that is a precarious position. For UVA to make it, I think they need to win 2 of their final 3 and avoid a bad loss in the ACC tournament (a team outside the NET top 100). Also, they need to avoid a blowout at Duke. Of course this is always dependent on what other teams do, but I think that is the recipe. If they lose the next two and beat Georgia Tech, my guess is they would be right at the cut line heading into the ACC Tournament. Which means they would likely need at least 1 quality win to have a shot and maybe 2. I think they have it in them, but we shall see!

Today’s (2/26/24) S Curve:

*Teams in red are projected automatic qualifiers.  

Last Four In: Utah, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Providence

First Four Out: Gonzaga, Colorado, Ole Miss, Pittsburgh

Next Four Out: St. Johns, Kansas St., Butler, Villanova

(Featured Image Credit: Getty)