Five Bold Predictions For Virginia's 2024-25 Season
Less than three weeks from the start of a new season, I lay out my five bold predictions for the 2024-25 Virginia men’s basketball team.
Impact Freshman
Virginia freshman guard Ishan Sharma will average over 7 points per game this season. That may not seem like such a bold prediction until you realize it’s only been done by one UVA true-freshman in the past 11 years, Kyle Guy (7.5 PPG). Just four first-year Wahoos surpassed a seven-point average under Bennett. Joe Harris (10.4 PPG), KT Harrell (8.0 PPG), and Justin Anderson (7.6 PPG) round out the list. Isaac McKneely (6.7 PPG) almost pulled it off a couple years ago.
Through the first two periods of the #UVA Blue-White scrimmage, freshman guard Ishan Sharma has been really impressive. Hit a tough, turnaround in the lane, beat the shot clock for an off-the-dribble three, drew a foul and hit both FTs and had a steal.
— Mike Barber (@StillMikeBarber) October 5, 2024
Sharma was not the most heralded recruit, ranked 236th in his class. UVA took a flier on him around this time last fall after losing out in the Kon Knueppel sweepstakes. People around the team believe they got a steal. The Canadian sharpshooter has impressed since arriving on Grounds. We’ll see what happens when the real games begin, but there’s a lot of excitement about him. I’m betting on the freshman to emerge as a key contributor. If he even comes close to 7 PPG, he’ll be in elite company.
All-ACC
Junior guard Isaac McKneely will be an All-ACC selection, either first or second team. I’m tempted to just say first-team, but I’ll play it safe. The pride of Poca averaged 12.3 points last season, shooting a ridiculous 45% from three-point range. He’ll be asked to carry a heavier load this year, likely as the main offensive weapon. If UVA finishes among the top five in the league as predicted, and I think they will, odds are McKneely will be an easy All-ACC pick.
In Bennett’s 15 seasons at UVA, there have only been three returning juniors who averaged over 11 points the previous season. Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, and Kyle Guy. All of them were first-teamers as juniors.
Virginia’s Isaac McKneely with some layup practice early in the season
— Hoop Herald (@TheHoopHerald) September 29, 2024
(Via @JonEasystep 🎥)
pic.twitter.com/L3a4CkDHwa
There won’t be just one Hoo earning All-ACC honors. I expect junior forward Elijah Saunders to find his way somewhere on the list too. The San Diego State transfer looks primed to make a big leap. He’s drawn rave reviews all offseason. When he committed, I called it a sneaky good pickup. That’s probably going to be an understatement.
Leading Indicator
If Jalen Warley is in the lead guard role for more than 25 minutes per game, UVA will easily exceed preseason expectations. Tony Bennett is calling it a point guard by committee situation right now. Senior Jalen Warley seems to be heading it up with young guys Dai Dai Ames and Christian Bliss competing for playing time. Bennett mentioned junior Andrew Rohde in the mix too.
Two or probably three of those guys are bound to be in the rotation, obviously playing together at times. And Warley is sure to have a big role. He’s their best perimeter defender and brings experience to a young team. But it won’t always be as the lead guard. That’s where things get messy. To be at their best offensively, this year’s team needs to have two from their stable of shooters (McKneely, Murray, Power, Sharma) on the floor at the SG and SF spots for the majority of the game.
I’m not necessarily predicting that Warley will have that type of role or even suggesting that he should. He’ll need to play well enough to earn it. And if that happens, UVA will be really good.
Record Rate
This year’s Wahoos will make more three-pointers than any Virginia team since the 2019 national champs. I’ll take it a step further, they’ll make more than any Bennett team excluding the championship squad. So over 247 three-pointers, the total from the 2017-18 season. They made an average of 7.3 triples per game that year.
In order to be successful this season, UVA will need that type of production from behind the arc. There will regularly be three or sometimes four players on the court whose best skill is the three-point shot. If they don’t blow past that 247 number, it could be a rough year. Two Bennett teams surpassed eight makes per game, the champs and the 2020-21 Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy team during the covid-shortened season. To compete at the top of the ACC, this year’s squad will probably need to be at least within shouting distance of that neighborhood.
Get One in March
Virginia will win an NCAA Tournament game this March. It’s been a cloud hanging over the program unfortunately. Despite continued regular season success, UVA hasn’t won a March Madness game since taking home the national title in 2019. I think they’ll get that monkey off their back this year.
With so many new faces, there’s a lot of uncertainty heading into the new season. It’s a young team. Tony Bennett openly talks about having a two-year window, essentially hinting that he has higher hopes for next season. They have a long way to go before thinking about postseason play. But there’s a lot of upside to this team. It’ll be exciting to see them grow together and improve as the season goes along. There’s obvious potential for them to be playing their best at the right time.
(Featured Image Credit: Josie Drumheller/UVA Athletics)