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Early Season Questions Answered, as Virginia Prepares for First Tests
Category_Virginia Men's Basketball

Early Season Questions Answered, as Virginia Pr...

Five Things to Watch for in Virginia's Early Season
Category_Virginia Men's Basketball

Five Things to Watch for in Virginia's Early Se...

Takeaways from Virginia's Preseason Exhibitions
Category_Virginia Men's Basketball

Takeaways from Virginia's Preseason Exhibitions

Early Season Questions Answered, as Virginia Prepares for First Tests Category_Virginia Men's Basketball

Early Season Questions Answered, as Virginia Pr...

By Kevin Cook

Led by new coach Ryan Odom, the Virginia Cavaliers are off to a 4-0 start with more challenging opponents looming on the horizon.  Before the season tipped, I listed five things to watch for in the early season.  Now, we look back to see how it’s played out so far. 

Cruise Control

Through four games against mid-major competition, Virginia has taken care of business.  None of the contests were ever in doubt, with the Hoos overwhelming lesser opponents as you’d hope.  The last two victories were especially convincing, taking 28-point leads into half over Hampton and Marshall.  They’ve covered the Vegas spread in three of those four wins, helping them inch upward in adjusted efficiency ratings.  

Over the long run, the margins of those games make little difference.  But typically, teams that wobble in the early season show signs even against the cupcakes.  Odom’s Wahoos passed that test and seem well-prepared for the stiffer upcoming opponents.    

Euro Stars

How well Virginia’s European imports Thijs de Ridder and Johann Grunloh adjust to the college game, as well as being in more featured roles, was seen as a big key entering the season.  It may be premature to fully judge.  But so far, so good.  

De Ridder currently leads the Wahoos in scoring at 17.3 PPG.  The more relevant indicator, he has the highest usage rate on the team at 26%.  He seems to have embraced his role as a go-to scoring option.  Meanwhile, Grunloh’s rate is a tad lower than we’d like at 19%. But he’s coming off his best scoring effort, a 16-point performance against Marshall in which he got up a season-high 11 field goal attempts.  Grunloh also leads the team in rebounds at 7.5 per game and ranks second nationally in blocked shots at 4.3 per game, so not a bad start for the German. 

I’ll be keeping an eye on their foul rates as UVA steps up in competition.  As mentioned before, both of them were a little too foul prone in Europe.  In their roles with this UVA team, it’s really important that they stay on the floor.  Especially De Ridder.  So far, they’ve both kept it at an acceptable rate.  

Hometown Hero

Early season games represent the best opportunity for players to make an impression and move up in the rotation, before roles get cemented.  Virginia freshman point guard Chance Mallory has made the most of his first four career outings.  The St. Anne’s Belfield product is averaging 10.8 points, on an efficient 55% from the field while hitting at an early 60% clip behind the arc.  He’s carrying an impressive 4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and his 2.8 steals per game ranks third in the ACC. 

Chance has logged over 20 minutes in every game.  Despite coming off the bench, his 22 minutes per game is 5th on the team.  He’s already on equal footing in the rotation with the more experienced guards that were expected to be ahead of him.  Mallory’s play has been the story of the early season, in my opinion.  The next four years with him are going to be a lot of fun.  He is a perfect fit in Odom’s system.  

Not So Fast

Virginia is playing at a much faster tempo.  There was only one direction that could go from the methodical pace of the Tony Bennett years.  But Odom’s past teams didn’t typically play at a super fast pace statistically either, and that’s the case for this year’s Wahoos.  So far, their adjusted tempo ranks 316th nationally. 

By the way, I don’t think that matters at all.  Fans make too much of it, mostly useful for calculating adjusted efficiency.  And the Hoos have been extremely efficient so far, ranking 11th offensively and 47th defensively.  Good for 25th in the country overall.  That’s what matters.

Solid Sam

We wondered about junior wing Sam Lewis after he had a couple disappointing performances in preseason scrimmages.  He’s been just fine since the games started to count.  The former Toledo star has started all four contests, averaging 10.8 points and shooting a blistering 53% from three-point range.  

Due to the injury to forward Devin Tillis, Lewis has seen expanded duties.  Odom has turned to him as an occasional small-ball power forward, helping back up Thijs de Ridder.  Lewis was always going to be an important piece this season.  But at least for the time being, he’s even more crucial.  His versatility in that regard will be invaluable for the Hoos in the non-conference tests to come.  

What’s Next

Ryan Odom’s Wahoos head over to West Virginia this weekend for their first real tests of the season as part of the Greenbrier Tip-Off.  They’ll face Northwestern (4-0) Friday evening at 5:00 PM Eastern, then Butler (3-1) on Sunday afternoon at 2:00 PM.  

Both look like quality opponents.  Northwestern currently ranks 44th in the KenPom ratings, while the Butler Bulldogs sit at 64th.  They represent opportunities for potential resume wins, depending how their seasons play out.  Virginia will likely be favored in each game.  It’ll be interesting to see how the new look Wahoos respond to their first power conference challenge.  

Come join the discussion on the Locker Room Access forum, the best spot on the web for the Wahoo Basketball fanatic.  

(Featured Image Credit: Josie Drumheller/UVA Athletics) 

 

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Five Things to Watch for in Virginia's Early Season Category_Virginia Men's Basketball

Five Things to Watch for in Virginia's Early Se...

By Kevin Cook

Virginia basketball tips off a new season Monday night, the start of a new era under first-year head coach Ryan Odom.  Here are five things I’ll be paying close attention to as the early part of the season unfolds. 

Margins Matter

Virginia’s early November schedule gives them an opportunity to find their footing.  The Wahoos play their first four games at home against mid-major opponents.  Starting with Monday’s opener vs Rider, followed by meetings with NC Central, Hampton, and Marshall before heading over to West Virginia for the Greenbrier Tip-Off the weekend before Thanksgiving. 

With an older roster and an aggressive style of play, this is a UVA team that should be able to overwhelm lesser opponents.  It’s still basketball, game-to-game shooting variance can make things interesting on any given night.  But the totality of these early November games, the scoring margins, will probably give us a good read on where they stand and what to expect for the non-conference tests coming later this month and into December. 

Let’s also not forget that scoring margin does kinda matter now.  It’s a big part of the NCAA’s NET ranking formula.  

Exchange Rates

Perhaps the most key factor for Virginia this season will be how well their high-priced European imports adjust to the college game and their roles on this team.  Belgian forward Thijs de Ridder and German center Johann Grunloh are expected to be in the starting lineup.  For Odom’s Wahoos to reach their potential, those two need to be standouts. 

The first thing that’s required for that to happen is for them to avoid foul trouble so they can stay on the court.  Both had fairly high foul rates in Europe.  And the style of play in college is more conducive to drawing fouls.  On top of that, the NCAA is emphasizing that officials clean up some of the physical play.  So, expect games to be called tightly in the early going.

De Ridder and Grunloh will also need to adjust to being featured offensively, as opposed to being young role players on their European pro teams.  UVA wants them to be assertive, look to make plays on their own at times.  More than has been asked of them in the past.  Ideally, their usage rates should be above average.  

Early Opportunities

The best opportunity for players to make an impression and move up in the rotation comes in the early season.  Coaches usually like to have defined roles by conference play.  Until then, things can easily change. Odom does like to use a deeper rotation, and has said he plans to go 10-deep with this team.  But plans can change.  Players will need to prove their worth in November and December. 

That’s especially relevant for the young guys on this Virginia team.  Freshman guard Chance Mallory certainly figures to have a safe spot in the rotation, but there will be ample opportunity for him to earn a larger role if he shines these next few weeks.  Odom has indicated that sophomore guard Elijah Gertrude will have his minutes limited in the early season, as he works his way back from knee surgery.  He seemed to be the 10th man during the scrimmages.  And freshman wing Martin Carrere could enter the conversation if he can provide an early season spark off the bench. 

Fast or Faster

The style of play under Odom will be quite different than Virginia fans had grown accustomed to with Tony Bennett.  More of the analytic-driven approach that’s become prevalent in modern basketball.  Odom’s teams shoot lots and lots of three-pointers.  He likes to pressure full-court and create turnovers.  And the pace of play will be much faster.  

The question is–will Virginia actually play at a fast pace comparable to the rest of college basketball.  Despite the talk about Odom wanting to play fast, his past teams haven’t done so in a while.  At least not statistically.  Only once has his team ranked in the top 100 of Division-1 in adjusted tempo, and that was his first season at UMBC.  His VCU squads ranked in the bottom half, outside the top 200, both years there. 

Silent Transfers

Two of Virginia’s key transfer additions had very quiet performances in their two preseason exhibition games.  Guard Sam Lewis started both games, and likely will again on Monday.  His spot could be on shaky ground though.  He only logged 11 minutes in the win over Villanova.  And former UC-Irvine forward Devin Tillis, coming off the bench, didn’t do much either. 

Now that the games count, it’ll be interesting to see how well those two perform.  Moving up from the mid-major ranks, there’s sometimes an adjustment period even for older players. They’re important pieces that Odom is counting on to provide solid production this season. 

Hoops is back! The best spot on the web to hang out is the Locker Room Access forum. Come join the discussion.  We’ll have Virginia Basketball covered every step of the way all season long.

(Featured Image Credit: Jamie Holt/UVA Athletics) 

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Takeaways from Virginia's Preseason Exhibitions Category_Virginia Men's Basketball

Takeaways from Virginia's Preseason Exhibitions

By Kevin Cook

Virginia officially tips off its first season under new coach Ryan Odom next Monday when they’ll host Rider at JPJ.  Before that, they faced a pair of quality opponents in preseason exhibitions.  The Hoos lost 95-87 at Vanderbilt on October 16th, then bounced back with a home win over Villanova by a score of 75-72 on Friday.  

About As Expected

It’s best not to overanalyze the details of preseason scrimmages.  But at the same time, the results are often indicative of how teams will perform early in the season.  When past UVA teams have started well in November, there were usually hints based on leaked scores of secret scrimmages.  And last year when they were hammered by VCU and Georgetown in October, it was unfortunately a harbinger of things to come.  

This October’s results are pretty well in line with consensus expectations.  They lost a competitive game on the road at Vanderbilt, Kenpom’s 19th ranked preseason team.  And then held on over a younger but very talented Villanova squad, ranked 50th.  That’s not a bad starting point for a revamped Virginia roster in their first year together with lots of room for growth over the course of a season. 

Go-to Scorer

Senior guard Malik Thomas was Virginia’s leading scorer in both preseason scrimmages, going for 18 points at Vanderbilt then following that up with a 16-point performance in the win against Villanova.  He went 5-10 from the field and 3-3 from the foul line on Friday, without committing a turnover.  There’s no full box score available from the Vanderbilt game, but reports suggest he did it in impressive fashion there too.

Thomas is a 5th year senior transfer from San Francisco.  He led the West Coast Conference in scoring a year ago at just under 20 points per game.  Ryan Odom brought him in to get buckets, to be the go-to scorer on this team.  So far, so good.  He’s stepped into that role comfortably, and seems to have transitioned to the high major level just fine.  

Offense>Defense

Ryan Odom loves offense, as he’s said many times.  Well, he should like this team. They’re loaded with offensive weapons, three-point shooting in particular.  The Hoos sank 10 triples in Friday’s win.  All 11 players who appeared in the game attempted a three-pointer. The entire rotation is a threat from deep, no one can be ignored out there.  

The offensive showings in these scrimmages were far from perfect.  They committed 18 turnovers Friday and missed a bunch of free throws at Vandy.  But this is where not overanalyzing the details comes into play.  The bottom line is Virginia scored well in both games, going for 87 points (in 48 minutes) at Vandy and then scoring at an efficient 1.12 points per possession in the win over Villanova.  It was a fairly balanced attack as well.  

They’re clearly behind on defense, however, allowing 95 points (in 48 minutes) to Vandy and 72 to Villanova. The Hoos committed far too many fouls.  Several players would have fouled out in the Vandy game and Villanova got to the line 22 times.  They also let Villanova grab 14 offensive rebounds, leading to 15 second chance points.  Some of it can be excused by normal early season issues, poor rotations and things that will get cleaned up as the team gels.  But I expect we’ll see that carry over into November.  And even once settled in, this team is just built to be stronger on the offensive end.  

Ten Deep

This is a legitimately deep Virginia team.  Odom has said he feels comfortable using ten players.  Judging from the scrimmages, that’s exactly what he’ll be doing this season.  Ten Hoos logged double digit minutes in the win over Villanova.  And although Odom did stick with the same starting lineup in both games, there isn’t much separation between some starters and the back end of the rotation. 

The starting guards were Dallin Hall, Malik Thomas, and Sam Lewis while Euro imports Thijs de Ridder and Johann Grunloh began the game up front.  Odom has brought prized transfer additions Jacari White, Ugonna Onyenso, and Devin Tillis off the bench.  Quite the luxury.  Freshman Chance Mallory is solidly in the guard rotation.  As is our man Elijah Gertrude, every bit as explosive as we remember.  

Under Odom, who starts doesn’t seem to mean very much.  For example, Sam Lewis had a quiet game and only played 11 minutes on Friday.  Odom turned to Chance Mallory in crunch time. The freshman stepped up and hit a pair of clutch free throws to seal the game.  It’ll be interesting to see how the roles evolve as the season goes.  Particularly in the case of Gertrude, as he continues to work his way back.  I expect Odom will often ride the hot hand, with some players’ minutes greatly varying from game to game. 

Excitement

Virginia fans are excited for the return of Wahoo basketball.  That’s my main takeaway as the season nears.  There was a really good crowd on hand for the Villanova scrimmage.  Fans are as active as ever on social media.  Our Locker Room Access forum is hopping.  After a long drawn out coaching change, there’s a lot of positive energy.  Ryan Odom and his staff have done a great job not only assembling a team worthy of excitement but also getting the fanbase on board.  Wahoos are ready for the start of a new era.  

(Featured Image Credit: Jamie Holt/UVA Athletics) 

 

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